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Alex’s Economics Blog

Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for CanaData, Reed Construction Data’s Canadian economic forecasting and statistical service. CanaData’s products include a monthly forecast newsletter, cost indices, regional and custom starts reports and an annual conference. He is a frequent contributor to the Daily Commercial News and the Journal of Commerce. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world construction outlooks. Mr. Carrick has been with Reed Construction Data Canada since 1985. Previously, he was Secretary-Treasurer and Economist for the Canadian Institute of Steel Construction for thirteen years. A trusted and often-quoted source for the media, Mr. Carrick holds a Masters in Economics.
Read more of Mr. Carrick's economic analysis at the Economic Outlook special section and Canadian Construction Market News and his light-hearted reflections on life and current events at Alex’s Lifestyle Blog.

August 28, 2008

Industrial Construction is Resource-related

The sectors of the economy that industrial construction depends on are currently under siege in Canada. There are three primary drivers of industrial investment activity: resource sector work; the automotive sector; and the rest of manufacturing. Only resources are firing on all cylinders at this time and there are questions there as well.

August 22, 2008

Construction Starts are Down about One-quarter So Far this Year

CanaData’s construction starts statistics remained significantly down on a year-to-date basis in July 2008, versus the same period in 2007. Grand total starts (i.e., residential, plus ICI, plus engineering) for the country as a whole were -21% in square footage and -25% in dollar volume terms.

August 21, 2008

Canada’s Slide in Housing Starts Begins

Canada is starting to track U.S. housing starts downward. However, the magnitude of decline should not be anything like as great. U.S. starts have fallen nearly 60% from their peak in January 2006 to the present. All indications are that interest rates are low enough, employment levels are high enough, home prices are reasonable enough and economic prospects are strong enough − based on resource wealth, if nothing else − to maintain housing demand at only slightly below 200,000 units as a floor level.

August 20, 2008

Five Reasons to Root for Developing Nations

I can think of at least five good reasons why it benefits richer nations (e.g., the United States and Canada) to give a helping hand to developing nations.

August 18, 2008

Ideas for an Everyman Olympics

The Olympic Games are a wonderful sporting and cultural event. There is no doubt that the athletes are the world’s elite. However, the games could do with being opened up a bit more. And I’m not talking about simply adding some sports that would seem to be obvious contenders such as drag racing, ballroom dancing, hot dog eating and paintball. No, what I’m thinking of is a more egalitarian version of the Olympics. One that would engage the interest of everyone and open up heretofore undreamed of possibilities for participation.

August 14, 2008

You Might Say It’s Glowing (3)

The future for nuclear power generation in the world has brightened considerably. This was introduced as a theme several days ago. Yesterday, I looked at the implications for Canada. Today, I’ll consider the United States. Remember that there are two construction aspects to nuclear power generation: (1) development of uranium mines; and (2) building the nuclear reactors themselves at a cost of billions of dollars.

August 13, 2008

You Might Say It’s Glowing (2)

Today’s blog entry continues with the theme introduced yesterday − that the future for nuclear power, and therefore uranium mining, is looking brighter.

August 12, 2008

You Might Say It’s Glowing (1)

The demand for electric power in the world is expected to double between now and about 2035. The proportion of total power in the world that is nuclear is about one-sixth. The future for nuclear power, and therefore uranium, is looking brighter.

August 1, 2008

Tidbits (1)

In the course of writing this blog, I’ve been doing an awful lot of reading. Some of what I’ve discovered is interesting, but doesn’t require a full write-up. Therefore, the following are just some tidbits or news-item gems that I have come across.

July 31, 2008

A Big Gamble for Canada’s Aerospace Industry

At the recent Farnborough Air Show outside London, England (the largest in the world this year), the groundwork was laid for Canada to grab a larger share of international airplane orders. Bombardier Inc. of Canada is trying to squeeze in between the two giants of the industry − Boeing Inc. and Airbus SAS − to produce the next generation of more fuel-efficient single-aisle passenger jets, employing lighter materials and a new engine made by Pratt & Whitney.

July 30, 2008

Intriguing Ideas to Replace Oil and Natural Gas (2)

Yesterday, I began a discussion about new means to generate clean and renewable energy as alternatives to oil, natural gas and particularly gasoline. Biomass and some of the variations on water power have been covered. Now let’s look at some of the neater alternative energy proposals.

July 29, 2008

Intriguing Ideas to Replace Oil and Natural Gas (1)

Much of 2008 so far has been spent lamenting world oil prices at new record highs, over $140 US per barrel. The result has been gasoline priced at $4.00 per gallon in the United States and $1.30 per litre in Canada. There are few dissenters when one says that Americans and Canadians have to lower their dependence on gasoline-fuelled automotive transport. How do we achieve this?

July 25, 2008

China’s Reluctance to let the Yuan Rise – Learning from Japan

The following is supplementary to my blog entries of July 3rd, July 4th and yesterday. There is a specific reason that China is not anxious to allow its currency to appreciate too rapidly, based on a previous set of circumstances experienced by Japan. Let me explain.

July 24, 2008

More on China and Japan – Similarities and Differences

The following adds to my earlier comments (blog entries of July 3rd and July 4th) about the Japanese and Chinese economies with respect to their similarities and differences. In particular, there is a specific reason that China is not anxious to allow its currency to appreciate too rapidly, based on a previous set of circumstances experienced by Japan.

July 23, 2008

A Higher Proportion of Homeownership, Mortgages and Condos

The 2006 Census results with respect to Canadian homeownership show some interesting changes compared with 2001, as recorded in a recent report by Statistics Canada. The following are some of the highlights.

July 22, 2008

Intentions to Renovate and Buy a Home Both Decline in 2008

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) recently released the results from its annual Renovation and Home Purchase Survey. This blog entry outlines some of the highlights. Intentions both to renovate and buy a home are down in 2008.

July 18, 2008

Some Other Keys to Commodity Pricing (2)

In a recent article for Market Insights on commodity prices, my approach was mainly to look at demand factors. Yesterday, I started a supplementary piece to consider more issues, particularly on the supply side, starting with energy prices and some aspects of forestry. The following picks up where I left off yesterday.

July 17, 2008

Some Other Keys to Commodity Pricing (1)

I recently wrote a story for Market Insights that dealt with international commodity prices. My approach was mainly to look at demand factors. I feel that a supplementary article is warranted that considers more issues, particularly on the supply side.

July 16, 2008

There are Exciting Answers to the World’s Food Shortage

The world is currently facing a food shortage. Here are some of the ideas that I have come across in my reading that are being proposed as means to raise agricultural output. These involve better use of existing resources and technological improvements, as opposed to relying on government action.

July 15, 2008

CanaData’s Year-to-date Construction Starts Perk Up a Bit in June

CanaData’s construction starts statistics improved slightly (i.e., were less negative) in June 2008 versus May. Grand total starts (i.e., residential, plus ICI, plus engineering) for the country as a whole were -17% in square footage and -27% in dollar volume terms. With respect to dollars, however, it needs to be explained that one large engineering project, that started in June 2007, has biased the numbers down.

July 11, 2008

Beware China’s Stock Markets

There is a reason to be fascinated by what is going on in China. That nation’s rapid growth is putting tremendous pressure on the world’s resources. This is driving up prices in many areas, from fertilizers and food, through energy and other commodities and on to downstream impacts on construction material costs even in North America.

July 10, 2008

China’s Influence Keeps Growing, But…

It is generally accepted that the Chinese economy has been kept pumped up by government spending in order to impress the world while Beijing hosts the Summer Olympics in August of this year. But what happens after that? There are a number of reasons not to expect a massive collapse in the Chinese economy after the Summer Games.

July 9, 2008

Fed’s Note to Self: Never Lower Interest Rates to 1% Again

Speculative swings in real estate prices, the stock market and now commodity prices have been playing havoc with the economy. The increase in the price of oil is now seriously delaying economic recovery.How do we get out of this mess? Let me make a case for a contrarian view on interest rates. This may seem like a harsh thing to say (particularly to those in construction), but the current level of interest rates is probably too low.

July 8, 2008

Want a Job in the U.S.? Work in a Coal Mine

Yesterday, I wrote a story for Reed Construction Data’s Market Insights on the latest U.S. employment numbers, for June 2008. In this blog entry, let’s take a look at the some of the sub-sectors within the broader job categories. Most of what follows will focus on sectors and industries that have a particular construction connection.

July 4, 2008

Will China be another Japan? (2)

Japan has struggled with a decade of stagnation. There is relevance in considering Japan’s problems with respect to China’s economic prospects going forward. This is the second of a two-part study.

July 3, 2008

Will China be another Japan? (1)

Japan had great economic success prior to its period of stagnation over the past decade. The rigidities in the Japanese system bear examining with respect to China's prospects going forward.

July 2, 2008

The Export Dependency of Canada’s Provinces

Two factors have thrown more attention on the export dependency of the provinces within Canada: (1) the increase in value of the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar since early 2003; and (2) the impacts of the U.S. slowdown/recession on economic activity north of the border. TD Economics, in its recent Provincial Economic Outlook report, presented rankings for each province based on export sales to the U.S. and the world at large.

June 27, 2008

Rules of Thumb – City Population Statistics

As I have mentioned before, I like “rules of thumb” because they help me to remember things and put them in perspective. Yesterday, I presented a way to organize and rank the populations of the provinces and regions in Canada. Today, I’ll take you through the nation’s major cities. Maybe some of these little “catch phrases” will stick in your mind.

June 26, 2008

Rules of Thumb – Provincial Population Statistics

When I’m out on the road working, or even when I’m socializing and don’t have handy reference material with me, I’m often asked about the population of Canada or one of the provinces. Therefore, I’ve worked out the following to help me remember. These are the kinds of “rules of thumb” that I like so much. They put things in context and aid with memory. Here’s hoping that you’ll find this useful as well.

June 25, 2008

Cap and Trade, plus International Offsets

Yesterday’s blog entry outlined the basics of a “cap and trade” system with respect to carbon emissions. At least in the short run, going “greener” under such a program will raise business and consumer costs and lower competitiveness. These factors will influence investment decisions moving forward, as will another aspect of “cap and trade”, the whole subject area of “international offsets”.

June 24, 2008

The Cap and Trade of Carbon Emissions

Some form of taxation on carbon emissions may be coming to the United States and Canada. The province of British Columbia has already included such a plan in its 2008-2009 budget. Furthermore, both U.S. Presidential candidates are more inclined to tackle climate-change issues than the current administration. This has serious implications for investment decisions.

June 20, 2008

Six News Items Ripped from this Week’s Headlines

The following are some of the key news stories from the latest week or so. They have been chosen because of their impact on the economy and construction activity levels specifically or because they are just plain interesting, informative or quirky.

June 19, 2008

Canada’s Export Success Stories (Part 2)

Yesterday, I began a discussion about the 13 commodity groupings in which Canada has had considerable export strength so far this year. Canada is perceived by the rest of the world as a country that achieves economic success through its natural resources. The nation is highly industrialized and also has a sophisticated service sector. Nevertheless, foreign trade figures bear out the conclusion that we can thank raw materials for a goodly proportion of our high standard of living.

June 18, 2008

Canada’s Export Success Stories (Part 1)

It is interesting to look at the latest foreign trade numbers and consider whether or not they match with the popular conception about Canada’s place in the world.

June 17, 2008

Canada’s Economic Slowdown has Bubbled Up from Below

In traditional economic cycles, expansion phases overheat, leading to rapid wage and price increases. These are corrected through high interest rates that bring economic growth to a halt for a while. The current slowdown is partly the result of some of these elements at an earlier stage in the cycle, but Canada’s current dilemma is also due to a number of curious, and perhaps unique, circumstances.

June 13, 2008

Canada’s Construction Starts through May Continue to Disappoint

CanaData’s construction starts statistics, year to date through May 2008, continued to disappoint versus the same period in 2007. Grand total starts (i.e., residential, plus ICI, plus engineering) for the country as a whole were -21% in square footage and -20% in dollar volume terms.

June 12, 2008

Insight into Provincial Economic Growth Rates

Statistics Canada recently published 2007 real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates for the provinces. A quick review is in order because it gives insight into what is driving the nation’s regional economies.

June 11, 2008

Job Growth in Canada may be Headed for Trouble

One has the sense that employment growth in Canada may be starting to weaken. In May 2008, the number of new jobs did increase, but only marginally (+8.000). Furthermore, the progression of increase has been stepping downward since the beginning of this year.

June 10, 2008

Multi-Unit Housing Starts Pick Up in Eight U.S. Cities

January through April 2008 total housing starts in the U.S. are -28.9% versus the same period last year. However, there is a big difference between the singles and multiples markets. Single-family starts nationwide are -38.8% while multiples are +11.2%. There are eight U.S. cities where multi-unit starts have increased significantly.

June 6, 2008

Politics Doesn’t Come more Pork Barrel than this

At times, in the not so distant past, investment in new meat packing plants has accounted for significant construction activity in some of Canada’s provinces, particularly in the Prairie Region. Current circumstances suggest, however, that not much in the way of new investment in this area of agriculture should be expected for quite a while into the future.

June 5, 2008

A Dearth of U.S. Visitors to Canada

It is becoming clear that hotel construction in Canada should not be geared towards any expected influx of visitors from across the border. Statistics Canada reports that same-day travel to Canada from the United States has fallen by 41% over the last two years.

June 4, 2008

One in Five Canadian Jobs is in the Public Sector

For contractors and money managers providing expertise and building skills to the public sector, it is important to know the various levels of government and what is motivating them. For example, alternative financing proposals for construction projects may meet with more success under current circumstances.

June 3, 2008

Day-to-day Living Costs Rising Faster than the CPI

People have been asking me, “Why is it that the cost of living seems to keep going up and up while the Consumer Price Index is hardly moving at all?” I think the answer is fairly straightforward. Our impressions, yours and mine, about the cost of living are based on day-to-day purchases. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is more all-encompassing. The day-to-day cost of living increase is starting to pack a wallop.

May 30, 2008

A Ranking of 7 Canadian Cities according to Job Types

It is interesting and informative to compare the six largest cities (by population) in Canada, plus Winnipeg (due to its regional importance), in terms of the kinds of jobs they provide to their residents. Therefore, the following looks at employment in a number of key industrial categories as a percentage of total employment in each city.

May 29, 2008

Other High Profile Energy Projects in COPs

Yesterday’s blog entry looked at showcase hydroelectric proposals in Labrador and Manitoba. Today, let’s take a look at some other high-profile energy projects that are planned for the Atlantic provinces and the Prairies (other than Alberta).

May 28, 2008

Showcase Power Projects in COPs

When one thinks about mega energy projects in Canada, what immediately comes to mind is Alberta’s Tar Sands. What are easy to overlook, however, are the very large energy projects that are underway or being talked about in other regions of the country as well. Some of these are oil and gas related, but quite a number of them have to do with electric power generation. A new era of mega electric power construction projects is nearly upon us.

May 26, 2008

Double the Level of Spending on Health Care vs Education in Ontario’s Budget

Ontario’s balanced provincial budget, released in March for April 1 2008 to March 31 2009, revealed some interesting information about the make-up of society and the role of government.

May 23, 2008

First Yellow, Then Black and Now “Pink” Gold

Yellow gold is the traditional kind of gold − heavy, glittery and likely to be found in Fort Knox. Black gold is a term that is often used when speaking about oil. Now there is a new kind of gold that is being talked about, pink gold. Pink is for potash, which has a light reddish hue. Potash, fertilizers, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland are all connected in a new prosperity.

May 22, 2008

Per Capita Output in Alberta is Double the Level of the Maritimes

What has been driving the significant regional population shifts within Canada? One obvious answer can be found in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures per capita for each province. The special feature that is separating the provinces most clearly at this time is resource riches.

May 21, 2008

Foreigners Like Us, They Really Do

If Canadians need a confidence builder, they need look no further than to foreign direct investment in the country last year. The shareholdings of Canadian assets by foreigners in 2007 (+14.4%) recorded the largest increase in eight years, according to a report just released by Statistics Canada. Clearly foreigners like us, they really do.

May 16, 2008

Soft Commodities, Food Riots and Export Taxes

The world is in crisis with respect to its soft commodities. Weather plays a large role in determining the supply of such goods. However, a number of other factors have also recently come to the fore in limiting availability. There is increasing anxiety about the price and amount of basic food staples. This is even leading to export taxes and quotas being imposed by former major exporting nations.

May 15, 2008

Canada’s Construction Starts through April Fail to Keep Up

CanaData’s construction starts statistics through the first four months of 2008 remained significantly down versus the same period in 2007. Grand total starts (i.e., residential, plus ICI, plus engineering) for the country as a whole were -19% in square footage and a similar -18% in dollar volume.

May 14, 2008

Five Things to Know about the U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit

The U.S. goods and services trade deficit has plateaued at about -$700 billion for the past eighteen months. There are five key things to note about the U.S. foreign trade deficit.

May 13, 2008

Great to be Working in Construction but not Manufacturing

According to the latest labour force numbers released by Statistics Canada, it’s great to be working in construction these days, but not so wonderful if your employment history has been in a factory. Total Canada employment growth in April 2008 was +19,000 jobs on a month-to-month basis. The year-over-year job growth rate was +2.0%. Both of these figures exceeded key benchmark levels.

May 9, 2008

Canada’s Housing Starts Average 229,000 Units through April

According to data just released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), housing starts through April of this year have averaged 229,000 units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. Unit starts in each of the past three months have been revised downward by about 12,000 units. Through March 2008, and prior to the revisions, starts had been +9.0% versus the same period in 2007. Now, through April (and including the revisions), they are only +2.1% ahead of last year, with further easing expected in the months ahead.

May 8, 2008

Four Examples of Strong Energy Markets

The news about major happenings in the oil and gas sector just keeps on coming. Here are four of the latest and most interesting stories.

May 7, 2008

Tick Tock for Interest Rates Due to Food Prices

Enjoy the low interest rates that are currently in place. They are likely to prevail at least through the summer. However, the clock may well be ticking on how long they can last. The source of a future disturbance to the current tranquility is likely to be higher prices originating in the agricultural sector.

May 6, 2008

Canada’s Auto Industry: The Elephant in the Room

There is an elephant in the room when it comes to the unionized automaking sector in Canada. “All-in” wages (base rates plus supplements) are as much as one-third higher than they should be. This is relative to sister plants of the Detroit Three in the U.S. and new foreign-owned plants throughout North America and around the world

May 5, 2008

April Employment Numbers Match Soft Spots in U.S. Economy

The April 2008 employment numbers, released on Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, correspond with what we already know about soft spots in the U.S. economy.

May 1, 2008

A Tweak in U.S. Interest Rates while Growth still Positive

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Board tweaked interest rates down slightly, while first-quarter growth numbers were a little better than expected.

April 30, 2008

Agriculture is an Often Overlooked Sector in Canada’s Economy

The health of the agricultural sector in Canada is often overlooked, but it can have wide-ranging impacts on construction activity.

April 29, 2008

The Pervasive Influence of Fossil Fuels in Construction

With the price of oil rocketing upward, it is important to keep in mind the pervasive impact that fossil fuels have on the construction industry. While these influences are varied and wide-ranging, they still break down into mainly supply and demand issues.

April 28, 2008

Industrial Product Prices Tame in February, but Watch Out

Statistics Canada reports that the industrial product price index (IPPI) was -0.8% year over year (y/y) and +0.1% month over month (m/m) in February 2008 (i.e., versus February 2007 and January 2008 respectively). These were both very modest changes. However, recent oil price hikes suggest that more radical cost and price adjustments are coming.

April 23, 2008

Eight Key Challenges Facing Alberta’s Tar Sands (2)

Today's Blog entry continues with a discussion of the challenges and threats facing Alberta's Tar Sands projects.

April 22, 2008

Eight Key Challenges Facing Alberta’s Tar Sands (1)

Nothing in Canada offers more economic potential than the Tar Sands of Alberta, but there are immense challenges to be met.

April 21, 2008

Alberta’s Energy Projects Pack a Big Punch

Because of Tar Sands energy projects, the total dollar volume of construction in Alberta is even with Ontario, despite the vast population difference (a ratio of four to one) between the two provinces.

April 18, 2008

U.S. Inflation Genie Comes Out to Party; Canada’s Stays in the Bottle

Just released data for March 2008 shows that inflation in the U.S. is running at a rate about three times as fast as in Canada − +4.0% year over year for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) versus +1.4% in Canada. What are the implications for interest rates in both countries?

April 17, 2008

Cranky Consumers Turn Shopkeepers Glum

Where is the pleasure in being a shopkeeper these days? Angry and depressed consumers have lost their usual “joie de vivre” and are staying away from shopping malls and other retail outlets in droves. What has reduced the “urge to splurge”?

April 16, 2008

China after the Summer Olympics

This summer, China is going to put on a spectacular show for the world, the Summer Olympics. Expectations are sky high. Will there be a letdown afterwards?

April 15, 2008

Construction Starts in First-Quarter 2008 are Not Encouraging

CanaData’s construction starts statistics in first-quarter 2008 versus first-quarter 2007 were decidedly weak. Grand total starts (i.e., residential, plus ICI, plus engineering) for the country as a whole were -25% in square footage and -18% in dollar volume. Furthermore, every construction category showed a downturn, some considerably steeper than others.

April 11, 2008

Canadian and U.S. Foreign Trade Reports Throw Curve Balls

Canada’s merchandise trade surplus increased in February 2008 (to nearly $60 billion CDN), while the balance of trade in goods and services in the U.S. deteriorated (to nearly -$750 billion US). The respective trade positions of the two countries are not supposed to be behaving the way they are.

April 10, 2008

The World of Commodities: Who Owns Whom? (2)

Major merger and acquisition moves in the mining sector will have an impact on commodity prices and on investment decisions around the world. Two of the largest ownership changes ever contemplated are discussed in today's blog entry.

April 9, 2008

A Jaw-dropping Level of Housing Starts in March

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released its March 2008 figure on housing starts in the country today. The national total was 255,000 units, seasonally adjusted at an annual rate. How can Canadian starts stay so high when the U.S. figure has dropped more than 50% since early 2006?

April 8, 2008

The World of Commodities: Who Owns Whom? (1)

A round of mammoth mergers in the world’s metal markets is currently underway. There are two reasons why this is an important subject for those who are interested in construction: (1) a smaller number of resource owners will upwardly bias commodity prices even further than is presently the case; and (2) investment decisions with respect to future resource projects depend on which companies really own what properties − which comes down to the question, who owns whom?

April 4, 2008

March 2008 U.S. Employment Numbers

The March 2008 U.S. employment numbers have been released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. How do the latest figures match up against two key benchmark measures?

April 4, 2008

March 2008 Canada Employment Numbers

The March 2008 Canadian employment numbers have just been released by Statistics Canada. How do the latest figures match up against two key benchmark measures?

April 3, 2008

University Enrolment in Canada Continues to Set Records

Capital spending to expand facilities by Canada’s universities has been on a tear over the past several years, mainly due to rapidly growing enrolments by the student population.

April 2, 2008

Expect Acceleration in the Appreciation of the Yuan

Rapid price inflation in China – over 7% in January 2008 − will likely lead to a greater appreciation in the value of the Yuan this year, versus the U.S. dollar, than at any time since a partial float was first permitted in July 2005. The logic for this flows from the close economic ties between the two countries.

April 1, 2008

A Dozen Painkillers for Canada’s “Hurtin” Industries

The weak U.S. housing market and the high-valued Canadian dollar, to one degree or another, are depressing activity levels in two of Canada’s most important sectors, forestry and manufacturing. This has led to clamours for government assistance, but at least a dozen “painkillers” have already been provided.

March 31, 2008

Rising House Prices are Good News for Canada’s Economy

Nothing can turn an economy sour faster than falling house prices. Yes, they are often a symptom of other problems rather than the primary infection site. However, once begun, the cycle of falling house prices is hard to break. Canadians have been lucky on this count so far and should have a good deal of empathy for their American cousins, based on what happened in the mid-1990s.

March 28, 2008

“Gut Check” Symptoms of Recession (2)

How do you know that you are in a recession on a “gut-check” level rather than an academic level? The following concludes with a final five indicators after introductory coverage a day or two ago.

March 27, 2008

“Gut Check” Symptoms of Recession (1)

The usual definition of a recession is two quarters of negative change in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, that seems a little academic. How do you know that you are in a recession on a more emotional level?

March 26, 2008

Private Office Buildings Lead Canada’s Starts through February

In the first two months of 2008 versus the same period in 2007, grand total construction starts (i.e., residential, plus ICI, plus engineering) in all of Canada, according to CanaData, have been -15% in square footage and -19% in dollar volume. However, this masks considerable variation within the individual sub-categories of construction.

March 25, 2008

The World of Commodities – “Snippets” (2)

In my Blog entry of March 20, 2008, entitled Playing Chess in Three Dimensions, I set out the reasons why it has become so important to pay attention to world commodity markets and why that task has become such a challenge. In this entry, set out as “snippets”, are some more of the most interesting observations with respect to commodities that I have come across in my recent reading.

March 24, 2008

The World of Commodities – “Snippets” (1)

In my Blog entry of March 20, 2008, entitled Playing Chess in Three Dimensions, I set out the reasons why it has become so important to pay attention to world commodity markets and why that task has become such a challenge. Below, set out as “snippets”, are some of the most interesting recent observations with respect to commodities that I have come across.

March 20, 2008

Playing Chess in Three Dimensions

There is a new fact of life that we have to deal with in the U.S. and Canada. That new reality is high world commodity prices. These are having a tremendous impact on costs and pricing, resource investment and currency values. Furthermore, there are a lot more players now and a lot more factors to take into account.

March 19, 2008

U.S. Housing Starts, Canadian Inflation and Everything but the Kitchen Sink

Yesterday was full of news on the economic front. U.S. housing starts, the inflation rate in Canada and the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate announcement are all analysed in today’s blog entry.

March 18, 2008

Sovereign Wealth Funds and the Term Securities Lending Facility

Foreclosures tied to adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) have led to problems for mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), which have necessitated a shoring up of capital by front-line financial institutions. Sovereign Wealth Funds have come to the rescue, as did the Federal Resrve last week.

March 13, 2008