June 9, 2008

Refusing to build roads isn’t the answer to climate change

Construction Corner

Korky Koroluk

The recent debate about Ottawa’s new mass transportation plan became somewhat emotional in spots.

At one point, Councillor Clive Doucette, a staunch supporter of light rail, opposed the plan because it includes, as well as light rail, extension of the city’s bus-only transitways — more roads, in other words.

Obviously agitated, he spelled out his objection: “I don’t think we should be laying down more asphalt anywhere, anytime, for any reason,” he exclaimed.

When votes were cast later in the day, Doucette found himself — as he often does — on the short end.

Despite that, Doucette is respected by most other councillors. He’s a dedicated environmentalist representing an upscale inner-city ward where getting around by bike or bus or on foot is feasible. He doesn’t just talk the talk; he bikes, he walks, he catches the bus.

And in an era where virtually all the cozy arrangements we’ve devised for ourselves are being threatened by the twin ogres of climate change and peak oil, we need the Clive Doucettes—prodding, cajoling, persuading us all to do better. But no asphalt “anywhere, anytime, for any reason” is not necessarily doing better.

The price of asphalt is skyrocketing, already causing municipalities to re-examine their roadwork needs. But none, as far as I know, are simply stopping. Instead they are scaling back. And they’re watching the work of researchers who are experimenting with new materials and new formulations designed to extend the life of asphalt pavements and save money.

Of course, moving to new materials and techniques often involves higher costs up front, and government might need to step in with some form of financial assistance at that point. But we can’t just wait, and hope to be able to get back to business as usual. Take a look at some of the literature about peak oil and you’ll see why.

Peak oil is a concept that’s been around for a generation now, accepted by quite a few industry analysts, rejected by just as many others. What the theory says is that we’ve already pretty well exhausted most of the oil that’s easy to find, easy to extract, and easy to process.

What’s left is the oil that hard to find, difficult and expansive to extract (think of Alberta’s oilsands), and difficult to process. And even reserves of that might be diminishing.

One school of thought has peak oil being reached about three years ago, with world production just now starting it’s inexorable downward slide. This school suggests that this may mean world production in 2040 will be about equal to world production in 1970.

But the world’s population will have doubled during those 70 years, with a corresponding increase in demand for oil, and a huge increase in price.

With the price of asphalt closely linked to the price of oil, no one should expect roadwork to get any cheaper in the next 30-some years. And that will change the way in which cities, provinces, states and countries plan and manage their road infrastructure. It will change the very shape of some of our cities.

In Ottawa, city council has decided to build light rail only in the densely populated area inside the surrounding greenbelt. The explosive growth in the suburbs outside the greenbelt will have to achieve much higher densities before light rail will be extended.

That increased density will have to be achieved by building neighbourhoods — real neighbourhoods, not just big box malls. These will likely be small, walkable developments that include things like modest apartments above strips of small shops housing small businesses, and office buildings so people can live near where they work.

In the meantime, therefore, there will have to be more roads, not fewer—all paved with asphalt. Expensive asphalt.

Korky Koroluk is an Ottawa-based freelance writer. Send comments to editor@dailycommercialnews.com

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